Every quarter, we dig into the latest BLS data releases and pull out what matters. This report covers wage changes, emerging trends, and the metros and occupations where the numbers shifted most.
What's new in the data
The BLS published updated OES data for May 2025 in March 2026. Here's what changed from the prior year.
National headline: The median wage across all occupations rose 3.8% year-over-year, from $48,060 to $49,890. This outpaced CPI inflation (2.9%), meaning real wages grew about 0.9%. That's the second consecutive year of positive real wage growth after the 2021-2023 inflation squeeze.
Biggest movers by occupation
Fastest salary growth (top 5 occupations by YoY % change):
1. Veterinary technicians: +8.2%. Demand from the post-pandemic pet boom finally hitting wages after a lag.
2. Wind turbine technicians: +7.1%. Renewable energy installation pace continues to accelerate.
3. Physical therapy assistants: +6.4%. Aging population demand compounding.
4. Computer and information research scientists: +6.1%. AI research talent war.
5. Nurse practitioners: +5.8%. Scope-of-practice expansion in multiple states creating demand.
Slowest growth (or declines):
1. Loan officers: -2.1%. Mortgage volume still depressed from elevated rates.
2. Real estate agents: -0.8%. Same cause.
3. Graphic designers: +0.5%. AI design tools are compressing this market.
4. Legal secretaries: +0.7%. Document automation reducing headcount needs.
5. Telemarketers: +0.3%. Everyone has caller ID. The occupation is slowly disappearing.
Metro-level highlights
Fastest wage growth by metro:
- Austin, TX: +5.2% (tech hiring rebound, Tesla/Samsung manufacturing)
- Nashville, TN: +4.9% (healthcare HQ expansion)
- Raleigh, NC: +4.8% (Research Triangle biotech + tech growth)
Slowest wage growth by metro:
- San Francisco, CA: +1.8% (tech layoffs and slower hiring in 2024-2025 depressed growth)
- Portland, OR: +2.0%
- Minneapolis, MN: +2.2%
The affordability picture
Wages rose 3.8% nationally. But rent rose 4.2% (per HUD's updated FMR). This means the median worker's rent burden increased slightly despite the wage growth.
The metros where the wage-rent gap was most favorable (wages grew faster than rent):
- Houston: wages +4.6%, rent +2.8%
- Indianapolis: wages +4.1%, rent +2.0%
- San Antonio: wages +3.9%, rent +1.8%
The metros where rent outpaced wages:
- Miami: wages +3.2%, rent +6.8%
- Tampa: wages +3.0%, rent +5.5%
- Phoenix: wages +3.4%, rent +5.0%
If you're in a metro where rent is outrunning wages, your purchasing power is shrinking even if your paycheck is growing. The AffordMap salary pages track this relationship for every occupation and metro.
Occupations where the pay-affordability gap is widening
Some careers are seeing salary growth that doesn't keep up with housing costs in their primary employment markets. These are the occupations where workers are getting raises on paper but losing ground in real terms.
Healthcare support workers (medical assistants, CNAs, phlebotomists): Wages grew 3.8% nationally, but rent in the metro areas with the highest concentration of these jobs (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa) grew 5-7%. A medical assistant in Phoenix earning $38,500 (up from $37,100) is spending a larger share of their paycheck on rent than a year ago despite the raise. The salary increase was real; the affordability improvement was not.
Retail and food service supervisors: These roles saw 4.1% wage growth — above the national average. But the workers in these roles are concentrated in high-cost coastal metros where rent growth is outpacing wage growth for below-median earners. A food service supervisor in Los Angeles earning $45,200 (up from $43,400) faces rent that grew from $2,100 to $2,250 — the $150/month rent increase exceeds the $150/month raise after taxes.
Software developers: Wages were flat to slightly negative (-0.3%) for the first time in over a decade, driven by layoffs, AI productivity tools reducing headcount demand, and geographic arbitrage as employers adjust remote salaries downward. Meanwhile, the metros where developers concentrate (Austin, Denver, Seattle) saw 3-5% rent increases. This is the first year since the pandemic where software engineers experienced real purchasing power decline.
Metro areas to watch
Three metros showed unusual salary-cost divergence this quarter:
Boise, ID: The pandemic-era migration boom finally hit wages. Median salaries grew 5.2% year-over-year — the highest of any metro in our dataset. But Boise's RPP jumped from 96.8 to 99.4 in the same period. The city is crossing the "average cost" threshold, which means the cost-of-living advantage that attracted remote workers is evaporating. Boise in 2026 is not the bargain Boise was in 2021.
Pittsburgh, PA: Quietly one of the best-performing metros for purchasing power. Salary growth was a modest 2.8%, but rent barely moved (1.1% increase), and the RPP ticked down from 94.8 to 94.2. Pittsburgh workers gained purchasing power even with below-average raises because costs held steady. This pattern — moderate salary growth plus stable costs — produces better outcomes than high salary growth in rapidly inflating metros.
Austin, TX: The poster child for affordability erosion. Wages grew 3.1%, but rent jumped 6.8% and the RPP increased from 101.6 to 103.9. Austin has officially crossed from "below average cost" to "above average cost" for the first time since BLS started tracking RPPs at the metro level. Workers who moved to Austin in 2020-2021 for the affordability advantage are now in a mid-cost city with no-income-tax benefits that are partially offset by rapidly rising housing and local prices.
How to read this report going forward
We'll update this analysis every quarter when BLS releases new OES data. The goal isn't to predict where salaries are headed — BLS data is inherently backward-looking. It's to document where the gap between salary growth and cost growth is widening (places getting harder to afford) and narrowing (places getting relatively better).
If your occupation or metro showed negative purchasing power change this quarter, that doesn't mean you should move immediately. One quarter isn't a trend. But two or three consecutive quarters of negative purchasing power change is a signal worth paying attention to — especially if you're early in your career and have geographic flexibility.
What to watch next quarter
Three trends we're tracking:
1. AI impact on mid-skill wages. Design, copywriting, and data entry wages are flattening while AI-adjacent roles (prompt engineering, ML ops) are surging. We'll track whether this shows up in the next OES release.
2. Return-to-office effects on geographic distribution. If major employers enforce RTO mandates, we'd expect high-cost metro wages to stabilize and remote-friendly metros (Boise, Raleigh, Nashville) to see slower growth as the remote arbitrage closes.
3. Healthcare wage acceleration. NPs, PAs, and therapists are seeing sustained above-average growth. If this holds for another year, the nursing pipeline becomes even more attractive financially relative to other bachelor's-level careers.
Get the full dataset
Every occupation and metro on AffordMap is updated when new BLS data drops. If you want the raw numbers emailed to you quarterly, subscribe to salary updates — we send one email per quarter with the data that matters to your career.
How to read BLS wage data without getting misled
Every time BLS releases new OES data, news outlets run headlines like "Average salary hits record high!" or "Wages surge past inflation!" Here's how to read the data like an analyst, not a headline writer.
Median vs. mean. Always look at the median, not the mean. The mean (average) is pulled upward by high earners — a handful of $500K executives inflate the average for an entire occupation. The median (the 50th percentile, where half earn more and half earn less) tells you what the typical worker actually makes.
Nominal vs. real. A 4% wage increase sounds great until inflation was 3.5%. The real wage growth was 0.5%. Every time you see a wage increase figure, subtract the CPI change for the same period. That's the real number.
Year-over-year vs. level. A 6% increase for home health aides sounds impressive until you realize it's 6% of $33,000 — a $1,980 increase. Meanwhile, a 2% increase for software engineers is 2% of $130,000 — a $2,600 increase. Percentage changes reward low bases.
Geographic composition. If tech companies in San Francisco laid off workers and those same workers got rehired in Austin at lower salaries, the national median for software engineers might drop — not because anyone got a pay cut, but because the geographic mix shifted toward cheaper cities. Always check state and metro-level data before drawing conclusions from national figures.
What to watch in the next release
BLS will publish the May 2025 OES data in approximately Q1 2026. Based on the economic indicators we're tracking, here's what to watch:
Healthcare wages. The nursing shortage persisted through 2024-2025, driving travel nurse premiums and permanent staff raises. The OES data should reflect significant upward movement in RN, NP, and allied health wages — potentially 4-6% year-over-year, well above inflation.
Tech wages. After the 2022-2023 layoff cycle, tech hiring stabilized in 2024 and began recovering in 2025. But the composition shifted — more AI/ML roles, fewer traditional SWE openings. Watch for whether the "Software Developers" category median moves or stays flat while the AI-adjacent subcategories surge.
Trades wages. Electrician, plumber, and HVAC wages have been climbing steadily as the construction pipeline expanded and the workforce aged. Expect another 3-5% year-over-year gain. The skilled trades continue to outpace inflation in wage growth, making them one of the strongest purchasing-power stories in the labor market.
Geographic shifts. The pandemic-era migration from coastal cities to the Sun Belt should show up in the metro-level data as increased employment (and potentially compressed wages from the supply increase) in Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, and Boise. Meanwhile, San Francisco and New York may show employment declines in certain occupations even as wages hold steady or increase — a sign that the people who stayed can command more.
We'll update this report when the new data drops. Subscribe below to get the analysis in your inbox.
Data from BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 release. Rent data from HUD Fair Market Rents FY 2026. CPI from BLS Consumer Price Index. YoY calculations are AffordMap analysis of BLS published figures. Full methodology.