Retirement calculator
See your real retirement number, adjusted for the city you actually plan to retire in. Uses Bureau of Economic Analysis cost-of-living data, the 4% rule, and the long-run real return of the U.S. stock market. All output is in today's dollars.
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This tool runs the math, but it can't account for your tax situation, account types (Roth vs. traditional vs. brokerage), Social Security claiming strategy, healthcare, or estate plans. SmartAsset matches you with a fiduciary advisor near you, free, in under 5 minutes.
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How the math works
Three numbers determine your retirement target: how much you'll spend, how long you'll spend it, and what your portfolio will return. AffordMap uses well-established defaults for the last two and lets you control the first.
Step 1: Income target
We take your current gross income and multiply by the replacement ratio (default 80%). That's how much annual income you'd want in retirement, in today's dollars. Then we adjust for the cost of living in your chosen retirement destination: if you pick Miami (RPP 109), your target rises 9% because Miami is 9% more expensive than the national average. If you pick Knoxville (RPP 90), it drops 10%.
Step 2: Subtract Social Security
Social Security covers part of the bill. The default is the 2025 average benefit ($1,907/month, or $22,884/year), but you can adjust it for your personal estimate. Some planners haircut this by 20-25% to model potential benefit cuts after the trust fund's projected 2033 depletion; that's a judgment call.
Step 3: Apply the 4% rule
The remaining income (after Social Security) is what your portfolio has to produce. Divide that by 4% — equivalent to multiplying by 25 — and you get the nest egg required. This is the Trinity Study rule, the most widely-cited safe withdrawal benchmark in retirement planning. It assumes a 30-year retirement and a balanced stock/bond portfolio.
Step 4: Project your current path
We compound your current balance forward at the chosen real return (default 7%), then add the future value of your annual contributions (yours plus employer match). The gap between this projected balance and the required nest egg is your shortfall (or surplus). The calculator also reports the savings rate that would close the gap.
A worked example: $85,000 today, retiring at 65
Take a 32-year-old earning $85,000 with $40,000 already saved, contributing 10% of salary plus a 4% employer match, planning to retire at 65 in Phoenix (RPP ~99). The math in plain English:
- Target retirement income: $85,000 × 80% = $68,000 (national average dollars).
- Adjusted for Phoenix: $68,000 × 0.99 = $67,320.
- Subtract Social Security ($22,884/yr): $44,436 from portfolio.
- Nest egg needed (× 25): about $1.11 million.
- Projected balance at 65 with 7% real return: about $1.45 million.
- Result: on track with a $340K cushion.
Move that same person to retire in San Francisco (RPP ~120) and the nest egg need jumps to roughly $1.6 million — same job, same savings, very different number. That's the lever AffordMap surfaces that other calculators don't.
What this calculator does not do
Honest list, because retirement planning is more than one formula:
- It doesn't model tax differences between Roth, traditional, and brokerage accounts.
- It doesn't account for healthcare costs before Medicare (a big deal if you retire early).
- It doesn't model sequence-of-returns risk — bad early-retirement markets hurt more than late ones.
- It doesn't optimize Social Security claiming age (62 vs. 67 vs. 70 matters a lot).
- It uses a single real return assumption, not a Monte Carlo distribution.
For any of the above, you want a fiduciary advisor or full-feature planning software (Fidelity Planning & Guidance, NewRetirement, Boldin). AffordMap is the right tool when you want a quick directional answer and a city-of-retirement adjustment that nobody else does.
Sources and assumptions
- 4% rule: Bengen (1994); Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz 1998).
- Real return default 7%: S&P 500 inflation-adjusted total return, 1926-2024 (Ibbotson/Morningstar SBBI).
- Cost-of-living adjustment: BEA Regional Price Parities, latest available year.
- Social Security default: $1,907/month, 2025 average retired worker benefit (SSA).
- Income replacement default: 80%, midpoint of the planner standard range (70-85%).
Frequently asked questions
How much money do I need to retire?
Most planners use the 4% rule: multiply the annual income you'll want in retirement by 25. So if you want $80,000/year of spending in retirement, you'd need a nest egg of about $2,000,000. AffordMap's calculator applies this rule but also adjusts the income target for the city you plan to retire in, using the Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Price Parities. $80,000 in Miami buys roughly the same lifestyle as $63,000 in a low-cost metro, so your nest egg target shifts with it.
What is the 4% rule and is it still safe?
The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz 1998), which back-tested withdrawal rates against U.S. market history. It found that withdrawing 4% of an inflation-adjusted balance from a 50/50 to 75/25 stock/bond portfolio sustained a 30-year retirement in 96% of historical periods. Modern critics argue 3.5% is safer given higher valuations and lower bond yields, while researchers like Bill Bengen (the rule's original author) have updated his estimate to 4.7%. AffordMap uses 4% as a conservative middle ground that aligns with most planning software.
How does AffordMap adjust my retirement number for cost of living?
Every U.S. metro has a Regional Price Parity (RPP) published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. RPP 100 equals the national average. Miami's RPP is roughly 109, meaning prices run 9% above national; rural metros can be 85 or lower. The calculator multiplies your desired retirement income by (localRPP / 100) so the savings target reflects where you'll actually be spending the money. Choosing a lower-cost retirement destination is one of the few legal "cheat codes" in personal finance — it can cut the required nest egg by 20-30%.
What real return should I assume?
The default is 7% real (inflation-adjusted), which is the long-run historical average of the S&P 500 from 1926 through 2024 (Ibbotson SBBI data). This is a real return, so it already strips out inflation — you can think of all dollar figures in this calculator as today's dollars. If you want to be more conservative, use 5-6%. If you have a lower-equity portfolio or expect lower returns going forward, use 4-5%. The number you enter compounds over decades, so even a 1% change moves the nest egg target meaningfully.
Should I include Social Security in my retirement plan?
Yes, but conservatively. The 2024 Social Security trustees report projects the OASI trust fund will be depleted by 2033 unless Congress acts, at which point benefits would automatically drop to about 77% of scheduled payments. Plan around the program continuing in some form — it has political weight — but assume a haircut for risk. The calculator's default $1,907/month is the 2025 average retired worker benefit. Use SSA.gov's "my Social Security" portal for your personalized estimate, or lower the calculator's value to model a benefit cut.
What income replacement ratio should I use?
Standard planning uses 70-85% of pre-retirement income. The logic: in retirement you stop paying FICA (saves 7.65%), most people stop saving for retirement (saves another 10-15%), commuting drops, and you may downsize housing. Higher earners can often retire on a lower replacement ratio because more of their income went to savings and taxes, not lifestyle. AffordMap defaults to 80%. If you plan to travel heavily, support adult children, or pay for healthcare out of pocket, bump it to 90-100%. If you plan to relocate to a lower-cost area and live simply, 65-70% is realistic.
How does this calculator differ from Fidelity's or Vanguard's?
Most retirement calculators ask for a desired retirement income in nominal national-average dollars. AffordMap is the only free tool that automatically adjusts that target for the specific city or metro you plan to retire in, using BEA Regional Price Parities. We also use real (inflation-adjusted) returns throughout, so all output is in today's dollars and easier to reason about. Brokerage calculators are excellent for personalized portfolio modeling — Fidelity and Vanguard customers should also use those — but AffordMap fills the "where to retire" gap that none of them address.
What if my projected balance is short of the target?
Three levers, used in combination: 1) Save more. Each percentage point added to your savings rate matters more in your 30s and 40s than your 50s due to compounding. 2) Delay retirement. Pushing retirement from 65 to 68 typically increases your nest egg by 20-25% even at the same savings rate. 3) Retire somewhere cheaper. Moving from a high-RPP metro (Boston, San Francisco, NYC) to a moderate one (Charlotte, Phoenix, Indianapolis) can cut your nest egg need by 20-30%. The calculator shows the exact shortfall and the savings rate that would close it; a financial advisor can model a personalized blend.